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VOLUME 20 , ISSUE 12 ( 2016 ) > List of Articles

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Validation of a prognostic score for mortality in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit

Luis Sanchez-Hurtado, Adrian Ángeles-Veléz, Brigette Tejeda-Huezo, Juan García-Cruz, Teresa Juárez-Cedillo

Keywords : Elderly, Intensive Care Unit, mortality, prognostic scores, Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3

Citation Information : Sanchez-Hurtado L, Ángeles-Veléz A, Tejeda-Huezo B, García-Cruz J, Juárez-Cedillo T. Validation of a prognostic score for mortality in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit. Indian J Crit Care Med 2016; 20 (12):695-700.

DOI: 10.4103/0972-5229.195702

License: CC BY-ND 3.0

Published Online: 01-12-2016

Copyright Statement:  Copyright © 2016; Jaypee Brothers Medical Publishers (P) Ltd.


Abstract

Context: The performance of a prognostic score must be evaluated prior to being used. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive ability of hospital mortality of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) score in elderly patients admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Aims: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the SAPS 3 score predictive ability of hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU. Settings and Design: This study was conducted as a prospective cohort, in two mixed ICUs. Patients and Methods: Two hundred and eleven elderly patients were included. Interventions: None. We compared the predictive accuracy of SAPS 3 measured at the first hour at ICU and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) measured with the worst values in the first 24 h at ICU. The patients were followed until hospital discharge. Statistical Analysis Used: Evaluation of discrimination through area under curve receiver operating characteristic (aROC) and calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test. Results: The median age was 68 years. The hospital mortality rate was 35.54%. The mean value of SAPS 3 was 62.54 ± 12.51 and APACHE II was 17.46 ± 6.77. The mortality predicted by APACHE II was 24.98 ± 19.96 and for standard SAPS 3 equation 41.18 ± 22.34. The discrimination for SAPS 3 model was aROC = 0.68 (0.62-0.75) and to APACHE II aROC = 0.70 (0.63-0.78). Calibration: APACHE II with HL 10.127 P = 0.26, and standard SAPS 3 equation HL 7.204 P = 0.51. Conclusions: In this study, the prognostic model of SAPS 3 was not found to be accurate in predicting mortality in geriatric patients requiring ICU admission.


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