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VOLUME 24 , ISSUE 12 ( December, 2020 ) > List of Articles

Original Article

A Retrospective Observational Study to Determine the Early Predictors of In-hospital Mortality at Admission with COVID-19

Aakanksha Chawla Jain, Sudha Kansal, Raman Sardana, Roseleen K Bali, Sujoy Kar, Rajesh Chawla

Keywords : COVID pneumonia, COVID-19, COVID-19 mortality, Mortality predictors, SARS-CoV-2

Citation Information : Jain AC, Kansal S, Sardana R, Bali RK, Kar S, Chawla R. A Retrospective Observational Study to Determine the Early Predictors of In-hospital Mortality at Admission with COVID-19. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020; 24 (12):1174-1179.

DOI: 10.5005/jp-journals-10071-23683

License: CC BY-NC 4.0

Published Online: 26-12-2020

Copyright Statement:  Copyright © 2020; Jaypee Brothers Medical Publishers (P) Ltd.


Abstract

Introduction: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) systemic illness caused by a novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been spreading across the world. The objective of this study is to identify the clinical and laboratory variables as predictors of in-hospital death at the time of admission in a tertiary care hospital in India. Materials and methods: Demographic profile, clinical, and laboratory variables of 425 patients admitted from April to June 2020 with symptoms and laboratory-confirmed diagnosis through real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were studied. Descriptive statistics, an association of these variables, logistic regression, and CART models were developed to identify early predictors of in-hospital death. Results: Twenty-two patients (5.17%) had expired in course of their hospital stay. The median age [interquartile range (IQR)] of the patients admitted was 49 years (21–77 years). Gender distribution was male — 73.38% (mortality rate 5.83%) and female—26.62% (mortality rate 3.34%). The study shows higher association for age (>47 years) [odds ratio (OR) 4.52], male gender (OR 1.78), shortness of breath (OR 2.02), oxygen saturation <93% (OR 9.32), respiratory rate >24 (OR 5.31), comorbidities like diabetes (OR 2.70), hypertension (OR 2.12), and coronary artery disease (OR 3.18) toward overall mortality. The significant associations in laboratory variables include lymphopenia (<12%) (OR 8.74), C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.99), ferritin (OR 3.18), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR 3.37). Using this statistically significant 16 clinical and laboratory variables, the logistic regression model had an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.86 (train) and 0.75 (test). Conclusion: Age above 47 years, associated with comorbidities like hypertension and diabetes, with oxygen saturation below 93%, tachycardia, and deranged laboratory variables like lymphopenia and raised CRP, LDH, and ferritin are important predictors of in-hospital mortality.


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